2020 (Part II)

It's inevitable, MLB once again, expanding.

We covered the possible expansion teams that will spring up in MLB by 2020 -- Rob Manfred has mentioned numerous cities... The front-runners seem to be Montreal, Portland, Charlotte, San Antonio, Oklahoma City, New Jersey, and two cities in Mexico in Mexico City & Monterrey. Other names brought up by other bloggers have also mentioned Nashville, Cuba, Puerto Rico, while I have heard even New Orleans & San Jose. 

Now this is the fun part...

I have this Baseball Book "Leveling the Field" by G. Scott Thomas, in which he used all these formulas & replayed seasons in different division setups for standings for different periods. For example, he started with 1901, and also had World Series results for 1901, 1902, 1904 & 1994. He would use a computer to simulate each season 100 times, it would show the percentage of results, and the computer would pick some random number of the 100 times as the official result.

I know what you are thinking -- What does this have to do with all this expansion talk? Just give me a minute and I will eventually get to the fun part that I eluded to at the beginning.

So anyways, back to 1901, we all know that baseball was separated into two leagues with no divisions -- what Thomas decided to do in this book, is make divisions happen as early as 1901, which made the playoff results interesting with the 100 times (and random choice aspect) -- If it came down with real-life match-ups, he would still do 100 computer simulations of that match-up, but would go with the real-life result.

The American League in 1901 was split up with Boston Americans, Philadelphia A's, Baltimore (would become N.Y. Yankees in 1902) & Washington in the A.L. East; Chicago White Stockings, Detroit, Cleveland and Milwaukee (would become St. Louis Browns in 1902) in the A.L. West. The National League sported the Philadelphia Phillies, Brooklyn, Boston Braves, New York Giants in the N.L. East & Pittsburgh, St. Louis Cardinals, Chicago Cubs & Cincinnati in the N.L. West.

Chicago White Stockings in real-life had best record 83-53 (.610) and with the new calculation of them playing 162 games, they went 99-63 with best record in A.L., The Red Sox/Americans won the A.L. East at 94-68. In the N.L., the division winners were the Phillies at 96-66 (East) and the Pirates (105-57).

Good book for people that love an alternate universe.

In his simulations, the White Sox took 56/100 (56%) from the Red Sox, the random pick picked White Sox defeating the Red Sox, 4 games to 1, in the ALCS. The Phillies only defeated the Pirates in 36% of the 100 simulations, but pulled off the upset in the random official pick, 4-2, in the NLCS. League Championship Series of course didn't appear until 1969, due to more expansion. For the World Series, The White Sox won 62% of the simulations, but once again the Phillies pulled off the upset, winning 4-3 in 7 games.

Now what does this have to do with the expansion, Shawn?!

First off I just wanted to tell you a little about that fun book, although some of its formulas are bit out there -- but the results part, was excellent. Second of all, when the leagues went into change, he added teams to different divisions. By 1969, the divisions and leagues were actually set up like they were in 1994 -- he decided to make a new jump NFL style, a year earlier in 1993 with the additions of Colorado & Florida.

It's from this idea that I would map out what the new divisions would look like in 2020 with MLB expanding to 32 teams. 

I came up with this one....

The one thing that bothered me, is that the Montreal Expos belong in the N.L. East, and the Colorado Rockies don't look like they belong with the Cubs, Brewers, Cardinals. The N.L. South turned out really nice, along with both West divisions.

So I then tweaked it to this / Version 2...

The realignment is never going to be perfect, so I forgive you Milwaukee Brewers fans if you cringe at the thought of moving again -- then again, you would have the Cardinals out of your hair. I moved Montreal to the N.L. East where they belong, moved Pittsburgh down from N.L. East back to N.L. Central. I moved Milwaukee to keep the theme of the Great Lakes, now that I moved Toronto back up to the A.L. East. Moved Cincinnati back to the N.L. Central, bumping Rockies out of slot, they would not be in N.L. South & the West is full, bumping the Rockies over to the A.L. West. Now we have a dilemma with Texas, putting them in the same division as the Houston Astros, plus the San Antonio (or Oklahoma City) would make it too Texan, while it would bump either Minnesota or Kansas City out -- So Texas goes to the N.L. to be in the N.L. South with the Atlanta Braves, Miami Marlins, and Charlotte expansion team. I think the Rockies being in the A.L. West will create a wonderful northwestern feel with Portland & Seattle, plus the Angels who have a history with both Athletics & Mariners. 

Now the next one is definitely interesting, it's not my idea -- This one is from Rant Sports...

Their choice of keeping the A.L. East like my choice in Version 2 works, the A.L. North is very interesting because it's the same fan bases that have to deal with each other come football season, the NFC North -- Bears (White Sox), Lions (Tigers), Vikings (Twins) & Packers (Brewers). I love what Rant Sports did with this, keeping the Geographical teams in tight clusters -- this would work out perfectly for travel. Now they had Oakland Athletics, but I edited Portland, because I am convinced this will happen by 2020 or shortly after. My A.L. West is the same as theirs, and they even mentioned that Colorado & Arizona could be swapped even, personally in recent years the D-Backs have got a rivalry going with the Dodgers, while the Rockies just have no rivalry -- they need to redefine themselves, so a change of scenery could be nice. Their choices for N.L. South was great, except I am not buying the fact that the Tampa Bay Rays are going to be around in 2020 -- the franchise is doomed, Joe Madden and Andrew Friedman -- the two men keeping the franchise afloat, have jumped ship, while the fans don't come out. 

The North divisions got me thinking "Lions, Tigers & Bears, oh my!"

In this scenario, they have the Montreal Expos as an expansion team, I don't see Montreal being an expansion team, the Expos want to make sure they have a grounded franchise in Montreal if they want the most potential for success. So Rant Sports having the Rays in the South, I say nix that, they will be the Expos -- and replace their spot in the south with either, a expansion team in Charlotte or Nashville. 

The Indians going to the N.L. Central may look funny, but when you consider the teams they are being paired with, it makes plenty of sense. Cleveland and Pittsburgh could start a really nice rivalry, being so close in proximity -- plus two blue-collared cities fighting through economic times. You keep the St. Louis & Cubs rivalry going, plus St. Louis in recent years has been a rival of the Pirates, now that the Pirates are no longer perennial losers. Cleveland and St. Louis used to trade a lot with each other, that may all change now as division rivals, plus whenever these two have played inter-league, it never seemed to be an odd match-up... maybe they were destined to be division rivals, hmmm? 

Overall, I like their choices though. 

*** To be continued for PART III ***