Friday, May 13, 2016

A.L. Surprises (and not so much)

Cano has the Mariners facing in the right direction.
So we are a good solid month-plus into the Major League Baseball Season... and with every MLB season, particularly this part of the season, there are always surprises... Here is my take on the American League.

I will start with the Seattle Mariners. Did anyone have the Mariners leading the A.L. West with an 18-12 record at this point? If you did... you are lying! The Los Angeles Angels are always in the mix with a man like Mike Trout leading the way, plus the Texas Rangers have a lot of talent; The Athletics are doing their usual reshuffle Moneyball thing, while the team that was supposed to lead the division, the Houston Astros, are a complete mess.

Seattle really was not on the radar, their big contract star Robinson Cano was supposed to be declining according to every baseball expert and Fantasy Baseball magazine... at press time, Cano was batting .306 with 11 HR & 32 RBI (.979 OPS) -- to put it into perspective he has twice as many homers & ribbies than slugger/teammate Nelson Cruz right now (5 HR & 16 RBI, .827 OPS)... without looking around the league at the moment, from the top of my head, I would say we have our early favorite in Cano for American League MVP right now.

Cano & Cruz are getting help in the lineup from young Ketel Marte, and the old vet, always forgotten Seth Smith; Smith is one of those players that completely falls off the face of the map (or so it seems), and then has one of those better seasons where he is one of the team's more dangerous weapons in the lineup -- he would do this from time to time in his days with Colorado and Oakland, he is doing the same thing, now. Smith has a .375 on-base percentage, with 4 HR & 12 RBI -- putting together a respectable .813 OPS. I happened to forget that he played for the Padres in 2014, this is exactly what I am talking about with Smith just vanishing off the map... then again, it's San Diego, where almost everyone falls off the map.

It also appears that Felix Hernandez has some help this season in the pitching staff (for once) with Nathan Karns (3-1, 3.38 ERA & 38 K's) and Taijuan Walker (2-2, 1.97 ERA, 29 K's). I have always liked both of these kids, in fact I had both players in my keepers APBA League for the Traverse City Panthers -- I traded Karns with Adam Warren & a 2nd round Draft Pick for Adam Wainwright, who was basically a second-half rental for our playoff push last season. I really can't believe Tampa got rid of Karns, while Walker has finally blossomed. Their new closer Steve Cishek (after a decline in Miami) has bounced back nicely in the American League with 9 Saves & 1.13 ERA this season.

Meanwhile... Houston we have a problem...

(Sorry, couldn't avoid it)

The Houston Astros, the team that was supposed to lead the A.L. West has been crashing to the MLB surface in the same way as the asteroid in 'Deep Impact' did.

Although they are getting some strong production in their lineup from consistent Jose Altuve (.317, 9 HR & 19 RBI, 10 steals -- with a 1.064 OPS), rising stud Carlos Correa (.284, 5 HR & 15 RBI / .882 OPS), and George Springer (.264, 6 HR & 16 RBI) -- it's their backbone of last season, the pitching that is completely letting the team down...

Out of their starting pitchers who have had at least 6 starts, this season -- It's Doug Fister that has done the best out of them, and that's nothing to brag about, when Fister is leading the team with a 4.54 ERA & 1.32 WHIP! Dallas Keuchel, last year's American League Cy Young winner, has been nowhere as dominant, with a 3-3, 4.70 ERA with 19 walks (through 44 innings & 7 starts). The bullpen has been no better, as it appears Luke Gregerson (7 SV, 3.29 ERA) is on his own.

Now let's go to the other side of American League spectrum, and check out the American League East. I am not surprised by the Boston Red Sox or Toronto Blue Jays, who I really think the division will come down to... I am also not surprised by the New York Yankees being in last, they are (and have been) long in the tooth for some time -- they benefited last season with bounce-back last hurrahs from Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez.

I am though, a bit surprised by the Baltimore Orioles (1st place, 17-12), who really didn't make any big additions in the off-season. Mark Trumbo (.313, 8 HR & 22 RBI / .922 OPS) and Manny Machado (.345, 7 HR & 16 RBI / 1.042 OPS) appear to be doing the heavy lifting when it comes to the lineup, while their pitching staff has had some high points early on with Kevin Gausman, Chris Tillman & Vance Worley (but most of it, is in small doses); Overall? I don't see this keeping up.

Steven Wright has been excellent for Boston with a 1.67 ERA &1.14 WHIP in 5 starts, while Rick Porcello has bounced back (so far) from a disappointing 2015 season, with 5 wins, 2.95 ERA & 41 K strikeouts (impressive K rate for Porcello in only 39.2 innings of work) -- So it appears pitching is actually doing well in Boston to go along with their strong lineup. Also, do you really think its time to retire, David Ortiz? 'Big Papi' is batting .301 with 7 HR & 25 RBI, plus a 1.011 OPS.

I believe the Toronto Blue Jays will win the A.L. East, they have a strong lineup, good pitching and a great balance going on right now, their +13 scoring differential shows they should be better than a .500 team right now & should regain control of the division very soon here.

The Chicago White Sox for a few years have been labeled the team to beat, or so it seems for this Detroit Tigers fan... So let it be known, when USA Today and other big name sports writers were once again picking the White Sox to win the division, I had to laugh...

This time the laugh is on me, the White Sox have a commanding 5-game lead over Cleveland and Kansas City & although their lineup has a huge question mark in Todd Frazier (yeah the power is there, but where is the batting average & on-base percentage?), it's their rotation that is truly carrying this team, as predicted. Will the White Sox keep it up? Sadly (speaking as a Tigers fan), I think they will be in this division race until season's end. There is a lot of things to like about the Cleveland Indians, and a well-managed Terry Francona team, I do see Cleveland as the potential division champ, if the lineup finds its groove.

Detroit? I don't even know if I want to field this question right now. After last season, and the good moves in the off-season, everything must face up, right? So far, a definite no. Justin Verlander was one of the best starting pitchers in the second-half, everything indicating a strong season for 2016, but so far it has all been disappointing, on the exception for one start. The three big highlights for the Tigers have been Jordan Zimmermann (5-1, 1.10 ERA & 1.05 WHIP), the bounce-back season of Victor Martinez (.320, 5 HR & 18 RBI) & the evolution of Nick Castellanos (.376, 5 HR & 24 RBI, plus .389 OBP & .993 OPS). The bullpen seems to be improving of late, but their rotation (on the exception of Zimmermann) has been horrible!

The defending World Champion Kansas City Royals need to get their bats rolling, and their rotation stable, its difficult to figure out which way they are going at this point, up or down? Their scoring differential (-12) indicates that they are a team on the downside... one thing is for sure, they are not playing like champions right now.

What's wrong with the Minnesota Twins? Nothing, they came back down to earth, and are in the natural order of this division.


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