Painting the Corner

2007 TIGERS Season Replay
I'm taking only a month off from the Crazy 48's to play the first-half season schedule of the Detroit Tigers' MLB Schedule. I always felt the Tigers could have won the American League Central, getting a shot to return to the World Series (that they lost in 2006 to St. Louis). Little did us Tigers fans know at the time, that it would actually take us five years to return to the post-season, we returned in 2011 in which we lost to Nelson Cruz and his Roids in the ALCS (yes.. I said it!) & would go on to lose the World Series in 2012 to the San Francisco Giants.

Mags won the A.L. Batting Title in 2007.

What I will be doing is only keeping my Tigers stats, and will make the differences of whatever the teams I play and adjust those to the overall standings, but besides that whatever happened between the Mariners & Indians (for example) in 2007 will stay exactly the same... if I place for the playoffs at the end, I go from there, if not we played our hearts out for 162 games.

This replay could effect the Phillies & Mets outcome in the N.L. East since the Tigers played both teams in inter-league play. Remember the Mets would experience one of the biggest meltdowns in MLB history, as the Phillies caught the Mets at the very end. Plus Tigers could hope to play some of the Wild Card potentials better, to improve their chances in case they don't catch Cleveland. Cleveland was a really good ball-club, so it's going to be tough.

This project will only take a total of two months for the regular season (I will play the entire first half of my TIGERS replay in one month), I know that may sound crazy to some... but it's a cake-walk for me, who normally plays 96 games a month (24 games a week) for my Crazy 48's Baseball League. I will play the first-half during October, then leave it at the All-Star Break & will return to the season in a few months as I resume my Crazy 48's. Just think of it as a television show (say The Walking Dead) that plays it's first half of the television season & leaves you at the edge of your seats, making you wait for months, LOL! Sorry, I'm not trying to be cruel, I also want to keep my followers for the Crazy 48's satisfied too.

The Tournament of Champions will get some action again during the Spring as I buy Volume III of the Greatest Teams of the Past.

Don't think we had a shot for the division title in 2007, well I'll play to find out.. plus here is my article from March 4th, 2013 on OVER-UNDER.

Speaking of that...
OVER-UNDER - 2013 Edition (as of 9/24/2013)

As the season comes to an end, let's note the over-achievers & under-achievers of 2013. Everyone (or close to it) had the Washington Nationals going to the World Series. On paper how can you argue? In many ways, I looked at the preview magazines, the Nats' roster and saw a roster that in many ways could have mirrored Davey Johnson's peak-Mets rosters, great bench, bullpen, rotation, lineup and colorful characters (minus all the drug abuse).

Of course, overall -- despite what formulas say, the 2013 Washington Nationals under-achieved, but according to Baseball Reference's Pythagorean Record, the Nats have two more wins than they should have had, so they are "over-achieving" by two games. The Philadelphia Phillies should actually be even worse than they are now, they should be 64-91 & not 71-84 (a negative 7)!

The 2013 New York Yankees are still mathematically in the Wild Card hunt as of today, some of my friends who love the Pinstripes are still holding on to hope. How can I put it without sounding like a hater? They were completely lucky, their lucky that they got this far with a bunch of cast-offs -- Yes, they had many injuries, and a season of Derek Jeter among others would have likely made quite a difference. Who knew that Alfonso Soriano would smack 17 HR's after getting into a Yankees' uniform? We kind of knew they were doing better than expected & that's also proven in their Pythagorean Record of 77-79 record through 156 games, a five-game difference.

This picture says it all for the Yankees in 2013.

Other interesting notes, the Tigers have under-achieved by four games, while the Houston Astros should actually have 6 more wins than that of their 51-105 record. In the NL, not a good sign for the Pittsburgh Pirates & Los Angeles Dodgers, both going to the playoffs -- both have over-achieved, Pittsburgh by 6 games, and Los Angeles by 5; The St. Louis Cardinals should have four more wins.

I'm still sticking with my Tigers to win the World Series, but my pre-season pick of them over the Nationals will not come to life, my gut says it will be the Cards (statistically that would be the safe bet), but the Pirates will be the youthful, excited team that will run out of steam as the Tigers take them in 5 or 6.

WAR, What Is It Good For?!
Absolutely nothing? It may seem like that, or needs a bit of tweaking at least. Why do I say that? It came up on MLB Now on the MLB Network, the show co-hosted by ex-ESPN Sports Center anchor Brian Kenny & former big league Harold Reynolds.

According to the overall WAR formula, the best 3B in all of baseball is not Miguel Cabrera, but Josh Donaldson (right) of the Oakland Athletics.

SCOFFF!!!

Better than Cabrera?! I don't think so!

Yeah, that was pretty much both of their reactions, and only proves that WAR needs some tweaking, this also should finally shut up all the MLB fans (especially Angels fans, sorry Dan) that felt Mike Trout deserved the MVP award in 2012 over Miguel Cabrera.

Many of those fans were running with the WAR formula, when they should have never been ignoring the truly remarkable stat: First TRIPLE CROWN WINNER in 45 years! Discussion over, Cabrera wins, hands down... plus Miguel's Tigers went to the playoffs, Trout's Angels under-achieved in 2012 & once again in 2013.

Plus it's a no-brainer that Miguel Cabrera is certainly a better player than that of Donaldson, sure Cabrera won't win no Gold Glove, but he's a much-better defensive third baseman than given credit for. His negative 1.7 to Donaldson's positive 1.8 on WAR defense, was enough to get Donaldson a WAR that edges Cabrera's overall WAR of 7.7 to 7.6!

OVER/UNDER (2007 - 2012)

Hate to say it, The Orioles will be playing in front of empty stands in 2013.

I decided to jot down some teams that over-achieved & under-achieved in the last 5 Major League Baseball Seasons, I had a feeling that the 2012 Baltimore Orioles over-achieved, but didn't realize by how much; according to their Pythagorean baseball record (of 82-80), they were nothing but a .500 team that rode clutch bats in September -- they won 11 games more than they should have. So news flash to those in Baltimore, don't expect a repeat performance in 2013. I believe I have the Orioles in last place in my early sketch of a MLB Preview for 2013, and this was before I did my little investigation of OVER/UNDER.

So here is looking back at the Overachievers & Underachievers from 2007 through 2012:

2007

The Three biggest over-achievers were the St. Louis Cardinals, the Seattle Mariners & Arizona Diamondbacks. The Cardinals couldn't defend their 2006 World Title, they were actually worse than their real-life record of 78-84 with a Pythagorean record of 71-91. The Mariners won nine more games than they should have with 88 victories & the D-Backs were basically a fluke in 2007 that (would go on and beat the Chicago Cubs as well in the playoffs) won 90 games, eleven more than they should have.

The N.L. West should have came down between the San Diego Padres & Colorado Rockies.

The Cubs should feel really bad losing to a sub-.500 team actually in 2007.

The entire A.L. East on the most part should have won 3-to-4 more games each. In the central, the Cleveland Indians over-achieved by 5 games (96 victories), the Tigers were right on and should have only lost that division by two games, I always felt if it wasn't for Cleveland's second-half surge that we should have returned to the playoffs in 2007. The Indians would blow a 3-1 ALCS lead against Boston.

2008

The Houston Astros should have really started rebuilding much, much sooner, they kept trying to tread water when all the entire time was actually sinking. The Astros' actual record in 2008 was 86-75, they should have only won 77 games. This trend continues the next couple years, here's a look from 2008 - 2010.

Houston Astros' actual records
2008:     (86 - 75)
2009:     (74 - 88)
2010:     (76 - 86)

Houston Astros' Pythagorean records
2008:     (77 - 84)  
2009:     (68 - 94)
2010:     (68 - 94)

It's also fair to mention that they had a losing record in 2007 with a 73-89 record (the Pythagorean was basically the same with 72 wins), this being said that 2006 was the last time that this team was actually a competitor, 80+ victory team. From 2007 -2010, this team at best was a 77 win team. Ranging around it's average that was pretty much the 2007 team of 72 victories.

Glad to Jays back to their glory days uniforms!

Now onto the Toronto Blue Jays, this is a team that from 2007 - 2010 was on a completely different parallel than that of Houston, the entire division under-achieved by 3 or 4 games in 2007. In 2008, the Blue Jays (besides their 2013 expectations) had their best chance of making the playoffs since 1993. Let's look at their outcomes & Pythagorean records as well...

Toronto Blue Jays' actual records
2007:     (83 - 79)
2008:     (86 - 76)
2009:     (75 - 87)
2010:     (85 - 77)

Toronto Blue Jays' Pythagorean records
2007:     (87 - 75)
2008:     (93 - 69)
2009:     (84 - 78)
2010:     (84 - 78)

The Toronto Blue Jays under-achieved by 19 games ranging from 2007 - 2009. The 2010 Season is the only season that the Jays lived up to their possibilities. They'll sit there with the Orioles through these seasons, making every excuse possible, about how the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees are just too strong! The Tampa Bay Rays, on the other hand, kept quiet and slowly started executing their plan that started showing rewards in 2008.

Speaking of 2008, below is the actual standings & records
1. Tampa Bay     (97 - 65)     ---
2. Boston            (95 - 67)       2
3. New York       (89 - 73)       8
4. Toronto           (86 - 76)      11
5. Baltimore        (68 - 93)      29

The 2008 Standings - Pythagorean records
1. Boston             (95 - 67)      ---
2. Toronto           (93 - 69)        2
3. Tampa Bay     (92 - 70)        3
4. New York       (87 - 75)        8
5. Baltimore        (73 - 88)      22

Very interesting to know that the Jays were actually so, so close! Maybe they should have also switched back to their historic uniforms much sooner as well (So glad to see them back in their classic threads).

The biggest over-achieving team of 2008, goes to the Los Angeles Angels who won 100 games, they were nothing more than a 88-74 team that probably preyed on a weak division.

2009

The World Champion New York Yankees actually over-achieved with their additions of C.C. Sabathia and Mark Teixeira, how is that possible?! Possibly due to Boston losing a few more than they should have, not to mention the typical under-achieving Toronto Blue Jays losing 9 more games than they should have; Blue Jays should have had a winning record of 84-78. The Yankees would have won the division barely over the Boston Red Sox by only 2 games. The Yankees in real life won 103 games, they should have only won 95.

Overachievers? Say what? Yanks added C.C. & Teixiera in  2009.

The Detroit Tigers also over-achieved and should have been nothing more than Even Steven, a 81-81 team, so it would have never came down to Game #163 in which the Minnesota Twins (once again) broke Tigers fans' hearts. Detroit actually went 86-77. Another over-achiever was the Los Angeles Angels winning 5 games more than they should have, but that's nothing compared to their division rival Seattle Mariners who won 85 games when they should have won 75, a ten-game difference!

The other biggest under-achiever next to the Blue Jays was the Cleveland Indians, losing 8 more games than they should have -- yet they still would have had a losing record of 73-89.

2010

Not much differences in 2010 from the real deal, the St. Louis Cardinals under-achieved by 5 games, while the Houston Astros (once again) over-achieved by 8 victories, they should have had a 68-94 record compared to their 76-86 division -- this of course, could be due to the whacky watered-down N.L. Central.

2011

The Detroit Tigers won their first division title since 1987, their first-ever A.L. Central Division crown. According to the Pythagorean record they over-achieved by 6 games, even so, they still win the division since everyone else in the division (except for Kansas City) over-achieved as well. The Cleveland Indians by 5 games & Chicago White Sox by 4 games.

The Milwaukee Brewers won 6 more games than they should have, but still would have won the N.L. Central over eventual World Champion St. Louis. The Cincinnati Reds under-achieved by 4 games, and should have won 83 games.

The Arizona Diamondbacks over-achieved by winning 94 games (6 games over their Pythagorean), sure they still would have won the division, but by only four games over the Los Angeles Dodgers. The San Francisco Giants also over-achieved by 6 games, and should have been sub-.500 at 80-82. The San Diego Padres actually should have been a lot better, 8 games better!

2012

The Athletics won the A.L. West in 2012, catching the Rangers.

Looking at the rest of the recent season of 2012, we have the Chicago White Sox who should have actually won the A.L. Central according to their Pythagorean Record of 88-78, winning the division over the Detroit Tigers by a game. In fact the A.L. Central during this time period of 2007-2012, according to their Pythagorean Records will have the division winners -- winning the division in the high 80's for victories... which is not at all surprising, since the division has kind of declined since peaking around 2006 when the Twins were a force & Cleveland was much better.

Other teams that were slightly over-achievers are the Cincinnati Reds (by 5 games) & actually the World Champion San Francisco Giants (by 6 games), while the St.Louis Cardinals were a much better team than their record indicated (plus I think they proved that in the playoffs as well), in which the team should have won 5 more games & the division by 2 games over the Reds. The Arizona Diamondbacks should have been more competitive than their 81-81 record by winning 86 games.

The Oakland Athletics, a team that wasn't getting any credit whatsoever entering 2012, even flirted with playing headcase Manny Ramirez, was actually on par with their play on the field. Their actual & Pythagorean records are almost identical, a slight difference of winning just two games more than they should have, probably two of those coming at the expense of the Texas Rangers (LOL!)

Last Thoughts
Now someone may argue, I don't buy into these formulas and nonsense, for the most part a lot of these Pythagorean Records matched up perfectly with history's greatest teams, while some of the lousiest teams in history did the same, likewise. Yes, there is a thing called luck & clutch, and there are times we sit back and watch a team do the impossible, and go "How are they doing so well?". I do believe that the Pythagorean records are pretty right on when looking back at history, the Orioles had a great bullpen going for them in 2012, but with bullpens we know it can be hit & miss, and when your team still have a miss of a pitching staff , not to mention that many Asian starting pitchers (like the Orioles' Wei-Yin Chen) usually get figured out -- seriously, name one that has not been figured out -- the team will return to it's state of balance, and in a division where the Rays look good to go, and the Jays are stockpiling, while the Red Sox & Yankees (even if they are not as tough in the past) are still one to battle with... It leaves the O's as the odd man out of the A.L. East in 2013.

My Izzy shout-out to Miguel's accomplishment.

I understand where people come from on these formulas, I agree with Bill James on many things, but then there are times I read his best all-time lists, and I know that he goes on his formulas to decide these lists, I can't say I completely agree with him all the time. So I know there will be someone who will read this, and go 'yeah, well I don't agree with you' & that is absolutely fine.

I heard all the debates when it came to Mike Trout & Miguel Cabrera, who should have won the 2012 American League Most Valuable Player, and I know all these formulas like WAR point towards Trout, but there is two things Trout didn't do, and I think it might just be the old school part of me on this one, but he didn't get the Angels to the post-season and he didn't win the Triple Crown, that took 45 years to finally come around again.

So in many ways, I really believe in this formula.