The Guessing Game

This post was inspired by two league owners kicking off a conversation which would lead to a trade. For all of you that compete in APBA Baseball Leagues either cards or through BBW [Baseball for Windows], you can certainly relate... this post is definitely for you. This post is an inside look how, trades can generally happen, especially ones prior to upcoming drafts. 

So prior to the draft, the Portland Microbrewers owner (Brad Stark) & I, were trying to figure out who's taking what. He had the #2 overall pick, and I had the # 6 overall pick. We tinkered with the idea of me trading my #6 & #16 overall picks for his #2 overall & #28 overall pick. This would ensure that I would get my guy, and he would take the risk of not getting his guy, and would add a #6 & #16 overall pick to his 1st round selection of #12... giving him #6, #12 & #16 picks in the first round.

Funny thing is that still won't make him the team with the most 1st Round Draft Picks, that would be the Spring Branch Duffers with 4 1st Rounders (#3, #7, #11 & #13 overall).

The genesis of the trade started with me offering Hunter Pence & my #6 overall pick, for his #2 overall pick. Portland (Brad) turned me down, due to him having solid depth at OF. Some people may think it's crazy for me to basically release a veteran star like Pence, just to move up 4 slots for a pick, especially in a deep draft -- a draft that will be featuring 1st Round-caliber talent in the 2nd & even 3rd rounds... but I really wanted to put my team in a situation to get the guy I truly wanted.

It sparked Brad to react by saying he would be more up to trading his #2 overall & #28 to the Panthers for the #6 & #16 picks... he wasn't really even trying to trigger a possibility of entertaining the idea, he was just merely saying it, at least that's what I got from my perspective.

I decided to look things over for the sake of it -- I knew (before looking) that the 2nd Round would still have tons of talent & through my quick recheck, I really loved the fact that there would be 1st Round-caliber talent falling to the 2nd Round; If I was to do this trade, it would give me a cluster of 2nd Round picks at #22, #24 & #28. So I sent a email reply back, saying something like "Damn it, now you got me thinking about it, LOL!"

I actually discussed what I came up with to my wife, and realized I really wanted to make this trade now, so I sent Brad the exact offer, mentioned above in the #2 & #28 for #6 & #16... Brad's reply was that he was still pondering it & now leaning against it. I respected that, and felt we were good either way we go.

Kings' Court: Kershaw anchors an impressive rotation for King Road.

He would mention that the King Road Kings mentioned they would not trade any of their starting pitching, and rightfully so... why would they? The Kings had Clayton Kershaw, Chris Sale, J.A. Happ, Carlos Rodon, Rich Hill & Ervin Santana... their rotation is set. Brad also mentioned that, he would not be surprised to see Charles (King Road) draft another starting pitcher, maybe Julio Urias... which I replied I felt he was going to go for a full-time, immediate draft pick as he has in previous drafts, and would go for a need at shortstop in Trevor Story.

I was confident that if we stayed put, stayed where we were currently at, that my guy Andrew Benintendi, Boston's prized prospect, and top 2017 prospect in all of baseball, would be gone by the time it got to my pick #6.

My thought process was that the Kings would go with their m.o. & take Story #1 overall, Portland would take a SP (which I felt this is where he was going at the time in our email discussion), and that at either #3 overall (Spring Branch) or #4 overall (Swatara) would take Benintendi. Spring Branch has nothing to lose, and plenty of scenarios to play with, with 4 1st Rounders... If I was Spring Branch, I would take Benintendi at #3 overall, and still would have a shot at a solid starting pitcher at the #7 overall pick (his other picks were #11 & #13).

I felt that Buffalo was going to take pitching, and if Spring Branch and Swatara somehow don't draft Benintendi, than he was good as mine... but that was a strong if, nothing is an absolute when it comes to annual drafts, especially the first round.

Brad would mention to me that Neil (Spring Branch) in their league, the Lame Ducks Baseball Association (LDBA), Neil took SP-Julio Urias (Dodgers) at #6, OF-Nomar Mazara (Texas) at #11, SP-Sean Manaea (OAK) at #15 & SP-Dylan Bundy (Baltimore) at #16. Apparently he had 4 1st rounders in that draft as well. Bundy was not available in our draft, he was a non-card held by Holland the last couple years as a keeper. Plus, nothing is a given, just because an owner took these guys in one draft, does not mean he may change it up in another... but it does give us an idea what he may do.

I mention to Brad, that at #6, I was for sure not taking a SP (maybe at #16 overall, especially if I got my guy). Brad came back that he was definitely going to draft the guy he wants regardless of upside, he wanted a guy he can be happy to cheer on for years...

That guy? Dansby Swanson. Swanson was on my radar, but he would only be my pick at #6 if Benintendi was taken... If Swanson was as well, that would probably make me rethink not taking a starting pitcher. It turns out Brad likes Benintendi as well, and would have likely taken Benintendi if it were not the fact that he has tons of depth in the outfield.

Benintendi (left) and Swanson (right) discuss their possible BoS destinations.

I mention to Brad that Neil turned me down in a deal involving me, sending Jean Segura (SS/2B) to Spring Branch... Neil had no need for shortstops, which helps Brad's case, in case he entertained the idea of doing our draft picks swap.

Much to my surprise, Brad would send an email saying "Ah heck, let's do it...."

For a second, I actually thought about backing out, after I thought there may be that chance that Benintendi fell to #6, and then I still had a solid pick at #16 as well. I felt if we stayed put, I had the bigger risk of losing out on the guy I wanted -- I felt if we did the trade, he had a slimmer chance of losing out. I think making the trade overall, especially if Portland still gets Swanson at #6 will turn out to be a huge win-win for Portland... He would get his guy & still have picks at #12 & #16!

I decided to "Let's go for it"

My thoughts, the first 6 picks would go like this...

• King Road picks Trevor Story at SS.
• My Panthers would draft Andrew Benintendi.
• Since Benintendi is off the board, Spring Branch will go with his LBDA choice of Julio Urias.
• Swatara already has Trea Turner, who is returning to his natural SS position, he either will take an outfielder or SP, I believe he takes a SP, but who after Urias? After Urias, it could be a small handful of guys.... Jameson Taillon, Tyler Glasnow, Kenta Maeda or Michael Fulmer? 
• Buffalo will take much-needed SP to go along with Noah Syndergaard & Chris Archer in the rotation.
• ... and Brad gets his guy Dansby Swanson for Portland at #6.

Before sending this post, I hope that Brad or any of the other owners won't be against such a post, I don't feel it violates a conversation between Brad or I, in which trade discussions run rampant in the league. I also don't want the other owners thinking that I was thinking they are predictable, because nothing is predictable when it comes to drafts & trades.... that's the beauty of it.

One question remains...

Did we get our guys? 

or (worst) did one of us lose out? 

Stay tuned for the follow-up to this article.