Wednesday, September 25, 2013

Painting the Corner

2007 TIGERS Season Replay
I'm taking only a month off from the Crazy 48's to play the first-half season schedule of the Detroit Tigers' MLB Schedule. I always felt the Tigers could have won the American League Central, getting a shot to return to the World Series (that they lost in 2006 to St. Louis). Little did us Tigers fans know at the time, that it would actually take us five years to return to the post-season, we returned in 2011 in which we lost to Nelson Cruz and his Roids in the ALCS (yes.. I said it!) & would go on to lose the World Series in 2012 to the San Francisco Giants.
Mags won the A.L. Batting Title in 2007.


What I will be doing is only keeping my Tigers stats, and will make the differences of whatever the teams I play and adjust those to the overall standings, but besides that whatever happened between the Mariners & Indians (for example) in 2007 will stay exactly the same... if I place for the playoffs at the end, I go from there, if not we played our hearts out for 162 games.

This replay could effect the Phillies & Mets outcome in the N.L. East since the Tigers played both teams in inter-league play. Remember the Mets would experience one of the biggest meltdowns in MLB history, as the Phillies caught the Mets at the very end. Plus Tigers could hope to play some of the Wild Card potentials better, to improve their chances in case they don't catch Cleveland. Cleveland was a really good ball-club, so it's going to be tough.

This project will only take a total of two months for the regular season (I will play the entire first half of my TIGERS replay in one month), I know that may sound crazy to some... but it's a cake-walk for me, who normally plays 96 games a month (24 games a week) for my Crazy 48's Baseball League. I will play the first-half during October, then leave it at the All-Star Break & will return to the season in a few months as I resume my Crazy 48's. Just think of it as a television show (say The Walking Dead) that plays it's first half of the television season & leaves you at the edge of your seats, making you wait for months, LOL! Sorry, I'm not trying to be cruel, I also want to keep my followers for the Crazy 48's satisfied too.

The Tournament of Champions will get some action again during the Spring as I buy Volume III of the Greatest Teams of the Past.

Don't think we had a shot for the division title in 2007, well I'll play to find out.. plus here is my article from March 4th, 2013 on OVER-UNDER.

Speaking of that...
OVER-UNDER - 2013 Edition (as of 9/24/2013)

As the season comes to an end, let's note the over-achievers & under-achievers of 2013. Everyone (or close to it) had the Washington Nationals going to the World Series. On paper how can you argue? In many ways, I looked at the preview magazines, the Nats' roster and saw a roster that in many ways could have mirrored Davey Johnson's peak-Mets rosters, great bench, bullpen, rotation, lineup and colorful characters (minus all the drug abuse).

Of course, overall -- despite what formulas say, the 2013 Washington Nationals under-achieved, but according to Baseball Reference's Pythagorean Record, the Nats have two more wins than they should have had, so they are "over-achieving" by two games. The Philadelphia Phillies should actually be even worse than they are now, they should be 64-91 & not 71-84 (a negative 7)!

The 2013 New York Yankees are still mathematically in the Wild Card hunt as of today, some of my friends who love the Pinstripes are still holding on to hope. How can I put it without sounding like a hater? They were completely lucky, their lucky that they got this far with a bunch of cast-offs -- Yes, they had many injuries, and a season of Derek Jeter among others would have likely made quite a difference. Who knew that Alfonso Soriano would smack 17 HR's after getting into a Yankees' uniform? We kind of knew they were doing better than expected & that's also proven in their Pythagorean Record of 77-79 record through 156 games, a five-game difference.

This picture says it all for the Yankees in 2013.

Other interesting notes, the Tigers have under-achieved by four games, while the Houston Astros should actually have 6 more wins than that of their 51-105 record. In the NL, not a good sign for the Pittsburgh Pirates & Los Angeles Dodgers, both going to the playoffs -- both have over-achieved, Pittsburgh by 6 games, and Los Angeles by 5; The St. Louis Cardinals should have four more wins.

I'm still sticking with my Tigers to win the World Series, but my pre-season pick of them over the Nationals will not come to life, my gut says it will be the Cards (statistically that would be the safe bet), but the Pirates will be the youthful, excited team that will run out of steam as the Tigers take them in 5 or 6.

WAR, What Is It Good For?!
Absolutely nothing? It may seem like that, or needs a bit of tweaking at least. Why do I say that? It came up on MLB Now on the MLB Network, the show co-hosted by ex-ESPN Sports Center anchor Brian Kenny & former big league Harold Reynolds.

According to the overall WAR formula, the best 3B in all of baseball is not Miguel Cabrera, but Josh Donaldson (right) of the Oakland Athletics.

SCOFFF!!!


Better than Cabrera?! I don't think so!
Yeah, that was pretty much both of their reactions, and only proves that WAR needs some tweaking, this also should finally shut up all the MLB fans (especially Angels fans, sorry Dan) that felt Mike Trout deserved the MVP award in 2012 over Miguel Cabrera.

Many of those fans were running with the WAR formula, when they should have never been ignoring the truly remarkable stat: First TRIPLE CROWN WINNER in 45 years! Discussion over, Cabrera wins, hands down... plus Miguel's Tigers went to the playoffs, Trout's Angels under-achieved in 2012 & once again in 2013.

Plus it's a no-brainer that Miguel Cabrera is certainly a better player than that of Donaldson, sure Cabrera won't win no Gold Glove, but he's a much-better defensive third baseman than given credit for. His negative 1.7 to Donaldson's positive 1.8 on WAR defense, was enough to get Donaldson a WAR that edges Cabrera's overall WAR of 7.7 to 7.6!

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